The Road to Recovery

Health Impacts

The world may be witnessing the beginning of the end of the global COVID-19 health and economic crisis. After unprecedentedly quick development timelines, a handful of promising vaccines have emerged in North America and Europe, and in Russia and China. Efficacy ranges from 70% (Oxford-AstraZeneca) to over 90% (Pfizer and Moderna),[1] but in all cases, sufficient inoculation would achieve herd immunity.

Immediate success is not guaranteed, and challenges persist. In most countries, the rate of vaccination is not yet reaching targets. Various observers have ascribed the blame on insufficient vaccine supply, lack of trained staff, regulatory roadblocks, or ineffective distribution…


Workers in Montreal. Photo credit William Topa

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags on, it has become well-understood that the economic consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns have been harsher for lower-wage workers. While higher-wage workers are more likely to be unaffected by the pandemic, as they are able to work remotely, hundreds of thousands of service sector workers have lost work. ICTC’s recent report, The Digital-Led New Normal: Revised Labour Market Outlook for 2022, documents the disparate impacts on employment across three evenly sized groupings of workers by wages.

From the report, Figure 1 shows employment in February, March, April, and May 2020 for all Canadian workers. Workers are…


Chinook Regional Hospital in Lethbridge, photo credit Graham Ruttan

As fall approaches, COVID-19 continues to pose serious health and policy challenges for Canadians. While daily new infections are not as high as during the peak in May, they are up from a low in July. Recent daily new infections are estimated to be in the range of 500–1,000, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Daily New Infections in Canada


Port of Vancouver, Photo by Ryan McLaughlin

Unadjusted employment in Canada grew by about 220,000 from July to August, or 1.2%, according to Statistics Canada. Employment tends to rise in summer due to sectors like construction and agriculture. After adjusting for this seasonality so that all months in a year are comparable, employment in August was about 5.7% below February levels (or a bit over 1 million workers). This is shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1: Canadian Seasonally-Adjusted Employment

The drop in employment since February varies by province. Figure 2 shows that Alberta remains farthest below February employment levels, still about 7% below the peak…


Photo credit Matthias Mullie, https://unsplash.com/photos/VAxCHgJvZ0g

Canada’s newest GDP data reveals a promising trend

On Friday, Statistics Canada released new sector-level Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for June 2020. After much speculation, this data offers an idea of how Canada’s recovery from the COVID-19 economic crisis is likely to unfold.

In short, the resumption of economic activity has been faster than many analysts expected. This relief comes after months of record-breaking plunges in economic indicators. Figure 1 below shows that aggregate Canadian GDP in June had nearly recovered to the level of March 2020, just following the onset of the pandemic, and was about 9% below the February peak.


A spotlight series on British Columbia

Canada’s Pacific melting pot province of British Columbia is rich in natural beauty, resources, and talent. Compared to Ontario and Quebec in particular, the province has so far managed to avoid a large number of COVID-19 infections and has suffered less economic damage as a result. Credit may be due to the smart policies BC enacted quickly, such as preventing nursing-home staff from working in multiple locations.[1] Nevertheless, the economic shock from COVID-19 is enormous, and it remains to be seen how the economy will recover, and how society will restructure itself following the shock. …


Reassessing previous forecasts

Photo by Chris Henry on Unsplash

One year ago, ICTC released the report A Digital Future for Alberta: An Analysis of Digital Occupations in Alberta’s High-Growth Sectors. This report analyzed and forecast employment in key digital occupations across Alberta’s economy during a period where economic diversification was beginning to take shape. Analysis encompassed many areas, including the fastest-growing digital jobs in 2019, wage premia for digital roles, the most in-demand digital skills, the fastest growing STEM fields of study, and many other findings based on primary research. …


Reflections from a Canadian in France

Just a month ago, I was happily presenting ICTC research on smart mobility — one of ICTC’s smart city priority areas — at the MOVE ‘Mobility Re-imagined’ 2020 Conference in London, UK. The conference brought together more than 10,000 attendees from around the world. Today, large conferences like these are largely a thing of the past , with many suggesting that they may not resurface for months or even years. At the time that I traveled to London, troubling videos were emerging from Wuhan China, about a mysterious virus that seemed to be spreading across the region and shortly after…


Insights Gained and Lessons Learned

Photo by Aditya Chinchure on Unsplash

The Information and Communications Technology Council (ICTC) was recently invited to participate in a roundtable discussion hosted by the Simon Fraser University (SFU) Big Data Initiative. As members of the ICTC research & policy team currently completing research on 5G and its use-cases across industry lines, my colleague Rosina Hamoni and I joined the conversation. While we were roundtable participants, we also treated the discussion as a chance to glean insight from the ten other experts around the table. The group included a number of heavy-hitters such as the CTO from the city of Vancouver, Directors and Chief Security Officers…


Whether you love it, hate it, rely on it, or actively work around using it, many Canadians have few illusions about the economic importance of natural resources like oil for our national economy. However, with recent headlines like barrel prices tumbling to $52 USD, or local interventions to this challenge including reducing supply in an attempt to adjust prices, it is becoming clear that our traditional industries are shifting.

As technology permeates more and more of our daily lives, even sectors like oil & gas are affected — with big data and analytics increasingly driving decision-making. …

Ryan McLaughlin

Senior Economist & Research Analyst at the Information and Communications Technology Council

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